Trade The Trend!

You might have heard the saying "The Trend Is Your Friend" and that you should "Trade The Trend."

But sometimes this is easier said than done. In this article I will show you an easy easy to identify and trade the trend.

How To Identify A Trend

Way back in the 90s I used fundamental analysis to try and predict the market. Long story short, it didn't work for me.

Since the mid 90s I have been using technical analysis in my trading. When using technical analysis, there are two different approaches:

  • Chart Patterns and
  • Indicators

Examples of chart patterns are flags, pennants, triangles, double bottoms and tops, etc. Candlestick formations are chart patterns, too.

Examples of indicators are moving averages, Bollinger Bands, MACD, RSI, etc.

So which approach is "better"? Should you use chart patterns or indicators to identify the direction of the market?

Easy answer: Use the approach that works for YOU. I personally use indicators. I like the black-and-white approach of indicators. As an example, the RSI is either above 70 or it is not. There's no grey area. I openly admit that I struggle identifying chart patterns while they are forming. Don't get me wrong: I am an expert showing you every single chart pattern there is at the end of the day. But I can't identify them with certainty while they are forming. But hey, I can't ride a bicycle either, so maybe there's something fundamentally wrong with me ;-)

Using Indicators To Identify The Direction Of The Market

In my own trading I use THREE (3) INDICATORS to determined the direction of the market and trade the trend.

Today we will talk about the my favorite indicator - Bollinger Bands. Bollinger Bands are a fascinating concept. They are available in EVERY charting software.

Note: If your charting software does NOT allow you to plot Bollinger Bands on your charts, it's time to switch to a different software provider. Let me know if you need help finding a powerful charting software platform

Back to Bollinger Bands. Bollinger Bands consist of a CENTERLINE, which is a simple moving average, and two standard deviations. One above the centerline and one below. These are called the UPPER BOLLINGER BAND and the LOWER BOLLINGER BAND.

I like to use a setting of 12 for the moving average and a setting of 2 for the standard deviation.

And here's how to use Bollinger Bands to identify and trade the trend:

In an uptrend you will see that the Upper Bollinger Band in pointing up in a nice 45 degree angle and prices are touching the Upper Bollinger Band. The Upper Bollinger Band acts like a trendline ABOVE the prices.

Trade-The-Trend-With-Bollinger-Bands-Example-1

So how do you know when an uptrend is over?

The uptrend is over as soon as the Upper Bollinger Band flattens or turns around.

Trade The Trend With Bollinger Bands Example 2

In a downtrend you will see that the Lower Bollinger Band in pointing down in a nice 45 degree angle and prices are touching the Lower Bollinger Band. The Lower Bollinger Band acts like a trendline BELOW the prices.

Trade The Trend With Bollinger Bands Example 3

And the downtrend is over when the Lower Bollinger Band flattens or turns around.

Trade The Trend With Bollinger Bands Example 4

Can YOU Identify And Trade The Trend?

Try it out for yourself!

  1. Pull up your charting software, plot the Bollinger Bands on the charts with a setting of 12 for the Moving Average and 2 for the Standard Deviation
  2. You can use it with ANY timeframe, but if you are day trading, you might want to use a five (5) minute chart.
  3. Look at the current value of the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands. Based on the definition that I gave you above, what is the market doing right now? Is it in an uptrend or in a downtrend?
  4. Now look back at charts. Can you see how the Bollinger Bands are showing you how to trade the trend?

You shouldn't have ANY difficulty to determine whether a market is going up, down or sideways based on this simple definition. If you do have problems, let me know and I'll be happy to help.

Keep in mind that this is NOT a trading strategy in itself! It's just a way to determine the direction of the market and identify a trend.

Summary

You can use chart patterns or indicators to help you identify and trade a trend. I personally rely on indicators because for me they are more "black and white".

My favorite indicator are the Bollinger Bands. They offer me an easy way to determine whether the market is trending or going sideways.

Does this help?

Leave a comment below!

Facebook Comments:

Leave A Reply (102 comments so far)


  1. Wallace Primeaux
    2 years ago

    Simple and to the point.
    Thank you.

    [Reply]


  2. Ralph
    2 years ago

    It helps thank you.

    [Reply]


  3. Bill
    2 years ago

    Wish all indicators had a simple explanation like this

    [Reply]


  4. Hoeda
    2 years ago

    Thanks! This is a good simple way of identifying the trend
    Waiting for other powerful trading technique

    Regards,
    Hoeda

    [Reply]


  5. Albert
    2 years ago

    Hi,
    you are right I also see the BB as a trendline

    from Albert

    [Reply]


  6. John Brown
    2 years ago

    Great stufff - easy to understand

    [Reply]


  7. marv howard
    2 years ago

    I believe this will be very helpful for me- thanks

    [Reply]


  8. pat oday
    2 years ago

    Integrity in keeping your word, not many today. Thank you Markus, you are appreciated !

    [Reply]


  9. steve
    2 years ago

    so many instructors seem compelled to dazzle me with superficial foot work.That you are not one of them is to your credit,and my good fortune......S

    [Reply]


  10. Patrick
    2 years ago

    It does help. Simple, easy to use, and well-written. Thank you.

    [Reply]


  11. LUIS DE MENEZES
    2 years ago

    Congratulation Markus ,you are a good writer and teacher.You explain in the simple way how to trade,i will say like Germans dass ist spitze klasse.
    I am a trader for more then 12 y. I have more then 2 dozen books about technicals,I lost many years alone to learn the market.,and today you explain all of this in simple way,a big advantage for the Novice.
    My best indicator is the price and Pivot P. which I want to hear the comments.
    Gruesse
    Luis

    [Reply]


  12. umesh
    2 years ago

    hello markus,

    it is a nice teaching by you , thank you very much.

    how can you help me ?, i am running small investment company,coaching technicall analysis

    [Reply]


  13. rodger sinclair
    2 years ago

    Hi Marcus,thank you for your advice on BB

    [Reply]


  14. Alfred Phang
    2 years ago

    Good explanation on the use of BB, but I think if you could put on another pair of MA and SAR indicators, it would be better, by the way, have you try this ?

    [Reply]


  15. Farhan
    2 years ago

    Hi, Markus,
    Very clear and to the point presentation. Keep it up.

    [Reply]


  16. John
    2 years ago

    Dear Mr. Heitkoetter
    This is very useful where trends are long. Long trends are unfortunately few and far apart.
    My observation on live charts show that this is best used on the 15 min. chart as the hourly chart does not seem to reveal longer trends regularly.

    [Reply]


  17. Madhavavariar
    2 years ago

    On previous occasions also you have explaine BB and I used to watch it. Now it is more clear now, Thanking you.

    [Reply]


  18. jan
    2 years ago

    greate job, you always make it simple.
    with Bolling band now we get more chance to make money.
    want to know what is sea hawk, ping pong chart look like.
    hope you'll show us detail same as trend folloing strategy.

    [Reply]


  19. glenn james
    2 years ago

    I don't understand the 12 or the 2. Could you explain?

    Thanks,

    Glenn

    [Reply]

    Markus Heitkoetter Reply:

    When plotting the Bollinger Bands, you have to tell your charting software which settings you would like to use for the indicator. "12" is the number of bars used for the Moving Average, and "2" is the setting used for the Standard Deviation.

    [Reply]

    mantu.montu1987@gmail.com Reply:

    then will we take Simple Moving Average Or Exponentional Moving Average for the Bollinger Bands' No. of bars

    [Reply]

    Markus Heitkoetter Reply:



    I'm using a simple moving average.


  20. Pradeep
    2 years ago

    Hi Mark,
    Minimum,how many bars should be touching the band before one can have a take on the direction.Also I get filled on stop loss frequently.Can you help.
    Thanks.
    PKJ

    [Reply]

    Markus Heitkoetter Reply:

    PKJ, for me ONE bar is sufficient, as long as I'm not trading right into support or resistance. If there's support or resistance at my entry, I wait until prices are breaking THROUGH these levels. Adding a second indicator like MACD or RSI can help to filter only the "best" trading setups.

    [Reply]


  21. Martin
    2 years ago

    Hi Markus.

    Why are you setting the moving average at 12 if you do not plot it in the chart?

    [Reply]


  22. isaac
    2 years ago

    good stuff, straight to the point

    [Reply]


  23. frederick
    2 years ago

    Hi Markus,
    Does your Bolinger setting ( 12,+2,-2) to determine uptrend and downtrend the only accurate one,
    what of the ( 20 +2 -2 ) settings ? I use BB and do'nt trade without them but not the setting ( 12,+2 -2 )

    [Reply]

    Markus Heitkoetter Reply:

    Frederick, if you use a smaller number for the moving average, the Bands "hug" the prices better. I found a setting of 12 more reliable than a setting of 20, especially when day trading.

    [Reply]


  24. Elizabeth
    2 years ago

    I've been following your lessons with interest and found what you had to say about Bollinger bands most interesting. I have since been applying to my trading strategy .

    [Reply]


  25. vijaykumar
    2 years ago

    DEAR MARKUS,
    BB EXPLANATION SIMPLE AND APPRECIABLE, HOWEVER LITTLE BIT MORE ELABORATION WITH 1 OR 2 MORE EXAMPLES WOULD HAVE CLARIFIED IN DETAIL THE UTILITY.

    COMBINATION OF MACD 2 5 3 AND 3 8 5 (ALL FIBONACCI NUMBERS ) GIVE THE EARLIEST
    INDICATION OF CHANGE IN SHORT TERM TREND. PLEASE TRY AND EXPLAIN WHETHER IS
    IT TRUE.?
    VIJAYKUMAR

    [Reply]

    Markus Heitkoetter Reply:

    Vijaykumar, is your statement about the MACD a statement or a question? I personally use the MACD with a setting of 12,26 and 9 and find it pretty reliable for my kind of trading.

    [Reply]


  26. Jose Herrera
    2 years ago

    Hi Markus
    I like BB but I don't use it, I know its a very good indicator it was introduced to me by Kishmore M
    aaai have to say you did a good explanation of it simple and concrete.
    Thanks and enjoy NY.
    Jose

    [Reply]


  27. Mike Kerfer
    2 years ago

    Agree Marcus - Bollinger Bands are great if you learn to interpret them correctly.

    [Reply]


  28. RAIWE JOSHUA UCHE
    2 years ago

    i received warm explanation on the upper bollinger band but not too clear on the lower part. can you please help explain further? i appreciate your mails, thanks a lot.

    [Reply]


  29. Vijender Singh Dager
    2 years ago

    Respected Marcus Ji ( Being Indian our heartiest way of addressing is as such.)
    Thanks for such a nice clear cut way of addressing the issue. I am moved heartily with your free donation of your knowledge. I am a great fan of your teachings that too f.o.c.
    May God give u long life enabling the mass traders with your good teachings.
    Thanks again and kindly keep it up.

    V.S.Dager

    [Reply]


  30. jahar guha
    2 years ago

    how can I select stoks which are buying and selling candidates. further so far I trade there are a very few days while I became successful in making profits speciallu in day trading.Would you please help how I can overcome the situation.

    [Reply]

    Markus Heitkoetter Reply:

    Jahar, THAT is one of the reasons why I trade futures instead of stocks. Many years ago I traded stocks and faced the same dilemma: How do I select the right stock out of thousands? I used filters and ran them every night. And in the morning I had my shortlist of stocks. But whatever I did: It always seems that I picked the wrong stock. The stocks that I picked weren't moving, while others were taking off. That's why I decided o trade the futures markets, and it has helped me and my trading!

    [Reply]


  31. Markus Heitkoetter
    2 years ago

    Best of both worlds :-)

    [Reply]

    Wendy Reply:

    The articles are wonderful to read and understand,

    [Reply]

    rooplal.vish@gmail.com Reply:

    is this setting only for futures

    [Reply]


  32. Mriazkamran@gmail.com
    2 years ago

    Markus:

    Read your book Day trading strategy and also watched videos. Simple and straightforward.

    1. As you mentioned in video, you only use Volatility based charts for day trading, which is 20 tick bar chart. Searched hard trading platform has option to use Volatility based charts with ticks bars. Do you have an idea which system supports this option and approximate cost?

    2. If can not find tick bar charting software, and want to use time based bar charts then what time frame would you think close to tick based bar chart?

    3. Placing an order, one tick above high of bar (in uptrend) and one tick below low of bar (in downtrend), how many cents you consider equal to one tick? And if using time base charts then how many cents will equal to one tick bar (rouoghly).

    Thanks, Kam

    [Reply]


  33. Shyam
    2 years ago

    Can't one use dual moving averages to determine the trend beside Bollinger Band ?

    [Reply]


  34. rajesh
    2 years ago

    THANK YOU

    [Reply]


  35. henry roberts
    2 years ago

    looking at nflx in bb where price going outside bands you then see formation of eggs when bands now contain the pb.question do you have or know to scan for these egg formations.please contact if you have this ability...thank you

    [Reply]


  36. tranduyanh@gmail.com
    2 years ago

    Can you guys let me know where to get the software for trading?

    [Reply]


  37. martinjoseph22@yahoo.com
    1 year ago

    so far excellent. hope there will be more on bollinger band.

    [Reply]


  38. aritobuse@ymail.com
    1 year ago

    i think i'm getting a hang of it little by little.thanks.

    [Reply]


  39. Abdul Salam
    1 year ago

    Nice one

    [Reply]


  40. bahuranghansi@yahoo.com
    1 year ago

    thanks a'lots...i was needed for the same kind of tutorial stuff...i hope will get very nice trading for me to just start practicing... once agin thanks..

    [Reply]


  41. Thennarasu
    1 year ago

    its very useful for day trading. thank you for your kindly help.

    [Reply]


  42. A.SEKAR
    1 year ago

    AFTER READING YOUR EXPLANATION WITH EXAMPLES,REGARDING HOW TO IDENTIFY THE TREND WITH THE HELP OF BOLINGER BAND,I AM CONFIDENT THAT I WILL BE ABLE TO IDENTIFY THE TREND CORRECTLY AND TRADE EFFICIENTLY.I FEEL THAT I AM A LUCKY PERSON TO SEE UR SITE . THANK U

    [Reply]


  43. sajo_johnson@hotmail.com
    1 year ago

    First intro to Bollinger Bands. Simple to understand and gives a perfect direction of the market. Thnx a lot.

    [Reply]


  44. rossgodlieb@tiscali.co.uk
    1 year ago

    Hi! I have used the Heiken Ashi candles in place of the normal candles. It seems to give a better indication of the trend. You can also add the open/close indicators superimposed on the Hieken Ashi to add further information. My platform is MT4. What do you think? Thanks. Ross.

    [Reply]


  45. narendra.maganti@gmail.com
    1 year ago

    true tip - addded real vaule to my learning

    [Reply]


  46. mantu.montu1987@gmail.com
    1 year ago

    Sure its a great explanation but i do trades for intraday and in intraday its very difficult to identify trend in one direction ,When it confirms that the prices are touching the upper bands and so is in up trend and when i take a trade on this basis its noticed that the trend flattens as it showed me late indication and most of the time i loose money.
    is there any way to chek it(trend) earlier.

    [Reply]

    Markus Heitkoetter Reply:



    Yes, you could use the "Fibonacci Trading Strategy". We have been using THIS strategy a lot recently. You simply start BUYING at the 1st retracement with a stop loss at the 3rd retracement. Your first profit target is the most recent swing high and your second profit target is the 1.382 expansion.

    Recently the markets didn't have the follow-throughs that we used to see, but using THIS strategy we have been able to capture the trends entering on a retracement.


    Does this help?

    [Reply]

    mantu.montu1987@gmail.com Reply:

    Thnx for ur response sir,
    i think it will be a better idea to combine both of these things in trade to have a profitable trade..

    [Reply]

    V Hyde Reply:

    Thanks for enabling struggling traders to fnd a way to make a return.

    [Reply]


  47. Baruna
    1 year ago

    Thank you much.. to you for sharing this strategy, very helpful. I also see your video on youtube, anyway I have one question what are you using for the software that can make the range bar colored green and have a dot/triangle when rsi is up from 70.? how can i get the software.? at this time I'm using TOS (thinkorswim - TD Ameritrade) it is free for 60 day's, but it can not be modify as your sofware.
    Thanks before for the information.

    [Reply]

    Brian Haviland Reply:

    The TOS think script people will help you with this

    [Reply]


  48. traderth@hotmail.com
    1 year ago

    THANK A LOT MARKUS A VEIL HAS BEEN LIFTED

    [Reply]


  49. Sunny
    1 year ago

    This is simple and effective. More

    [Reply]


  50. ridwanmulyana99@yahoo.com
    1 year ago

    wonderfull

    [Reply]


  51. venu_472@yahoo.com
    1 year ago

    HI, THANK YOU,FOR YOUR SIMPLE AND EASY TO UNDERSTAND PERSENTATION.

    [Reply]


  52. Tim
    1 year ago

    When I examine NOK chart 3 months or longer as you reach more recent dates the upper BB shows an uptrend and the lower BB shows a down trend. Ideas?

    [Reply]


  53. Foyzul
    1 year ago

    nice explannation!

    [Reply]


  54. Anand
    1 year ago

    can i use this in indian market ? , please give more guideline on indian markets also

    [Reply]


  55. Jayb
    1 year ago

    Hi.

    For once i am able to identify the trend.Where have you been the last 18 months?
    Thanks for bringing me to the light.

    [Reply]


  56. Jitendra
    1 year ago

    Yes.. it did worked...
    Thanx.

    [Reply]


  57. Harshadsinh
    1 year ago

    Its so easy by your stile to determine trend

    [Reply]


  58. MAHESH
    1 year ago

    What other indicators to use alongwith Bollinger Band for good returns

    [Reply]


  59. Somashekhar
    1 year ago

    Sir, I am very much glad to writting to you.

    Thaking for your good choosing of indicator. Where myself is also following the same indicator but how to catch the starting point of the 45 degree line. Otherwise my brokerage charges will eat my earnings. These days same thing is happened for me with bollingar bands.
    Is there any other hints or indicators to know the exact beginning of uptrend/downtrend.

    Best regards,
    Somashekhar M

    9480695471

    [Reply]


  60. kotwani
    1 year ago

    how do you classify/quantify 1st & 3rd retracement:
    is it 38,2 & 61.8% you r refering to

    [Reply]

    Markus Heitkoetter Reply:

     
    Yes, exactly!
     

    [Reply]


  61. Vara Prasad
    1 year ago

    suggest me the good software for Indian nifty stocks with chart patterns and indicators, where I can get that and will they show me how to use in the market hours. How to set up a simple trading station.
    Vara Prasad

    [Reply]

    Rk Reply:

    for intra day charts, use 5bar ma, 21bar ma, 89bar ma.......for trend. buy when 5ma crosses 21ma; use 2min or 3 min chart..........use standard MACD & STOCHASTICS for additional entry signals
    rajkumar
    sunny_me123@yahoo.com

    [Reply]


  62. Richard
    1 year ago

    you are suggesting a 5 min chart for day trading; yet in your video you use range bars. why the switch?

    [Reply]


  63. HARISH
    1 year ago

    VERY INTERSTING AND SIMPLE EXPLAINED

    [Reply]


  64. JW
    1 year ago

    Very easy to understand. Looking forward to using it as part of my over all strategy.

    [Reply]


  65. Hamih
    1 year ago

    thanks a lot it was useful

    [Reply]


  66. Asif
    1 year ago

    Hi Markus,
    Great simple stuff.God bless you and your family for helping people with your knowledge and encouragement. I have learned avery good lesson from your apprach. I have started a written plan and is following on demo acc.i am sure it will work by the grace of almighty.
    Thanks again.
    Asif

    [Reply]


  67. ibe azubike
    1 year ago

    Thanks a lot.

    [Reply]


  68. ibe
    1 year ago

    i need more help thank you

    [Reply]


  69. kc chawla
    1 year ago

    GOOD STRETEGY.ITRIED IT LAST WEEK ON NSE IN INDIA.SAME DAY IT GAVE AGOOD RESULT BUT I CARRIED FORWARD THE TRADE.PRESENTLY ON PAR ALMOST. NO REGRETS BUT THE THEORY CONFIRMED ITSELF FOR DAY TRADE.
    KC CHAWLA

    [Reply]


  70. Karl
    1 year ago

    Thx Markus. Very useful info. I will adopt the use of BB (12,2) as you suggested.

    [Reply]


  71. Ray
    1 year ago

    Easy to see in hindsight, not so easy against the right edge of a chart :)
    By the time anyone notices the nice 45 degree angle, 1/3 of the trend is history :))

    [Reply]

    Markus Heitkoetter Reply:


    I absolutely agree. But there's still 2/3 of the trend left :-)
    I'm trying to catch the 1/3 in the middle of the trend.
    - Markus

    [Reply]


  72. Anthony
    10 months ago

    This is excellent.

    [Reply]


  73. sanjay shah
    10 months ago

    simple explanation about bollinger in intraday i liked. thank you.

    [Reply]


  74. lianne
    10 months ago

    it is very helpfull.thank you

    [Reply]


  75. Gary .L
    9 months ago

    Looks Good To Me!!

    [Reply]


  76. LuoPing
    9 months ago

    For Boolean line I can't draw, will analyze and judge!

    [Reply]


  77. Machindra Sawant
    9 months ago

    can we use it on day trading commodity market ? if yes then which min chart is suitable and what is its best settings ?

    [Reply]


  78. Paul Murphy
    9 months ago

    Thanks Markus
    Layout of your charts are easy to follow direction
    Of the market.
    For me to plot your settings on a 5min chart
    Would i need to look at the 1hr chart first for
    Trend direction before making entry on 5min
    Chart?
    Paul

    [Reply]


  79. Marcello
    9 months ago

    I hope this works sick of loosing
    Will give it a try

    [Reply]


  80. Suresh Agarwal
    9 months ago

    well will give moretime to read and understand it more

    [Reply]


  81. Gerhard Ziemann
    9 months ago

    Thank you Markus, very good
    Gerrhard

    [Reply]


  82. Vishwanand Rooplal
    9 months ago

    Very simple strategy to follow

    [Reply]


  83. VIJAYKUMAR
    8 months ago

    I READ YOUR ANSER TO MY QUERY/SUGGESTION TODAY. I KNEW FROM YOUR REPLY THAT YOU APPLY MACD 12 26 9 BUT I HAVE OBSERVED THAT THIS PARAMETERS GIVE LITTLE LATE SIGNAL FOR BUYING/SELLING, SO I JUST WROTE THAT COMBINATION OF MACD 2 5 3 AND MACD 3 5 8 BELOW THE PRICE OF A SCRIP/ INDICES GIVE MUCH EARLIER SIGNAL AND I WNATED YOU TO TRY OUT AND HAVE YOUR OPINION.
    SECONDLY I HAD ASKED A QUESTION ( AT THE WINDOW YOU HAVE PROVIDED TO ASK ANY QUESTION/ CONTACT US )
    YOUR BB EXPLANATION FOUND TO BE EXCELLENT AND OF IMMENSE UTILITY SINCE FOR THE TRADER/INVESTOR THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION WHEN THE "REVERSAL " TAKES PLACE TO CLOSE THE TRADE. AFTER READING YOUR ARTICLE I TREID OUT AND HAD AN EXCELLENT RESULT(OF CURSE PROFITING ) NOW MAIN QUERY IS ON THE BASIS OF BB 12 ,2, HOW TO SET A QUERY TO RUN FOR SCANNING TO FIND OUT THE SCRIP CHOICE TO PLACE TRADE THE NEXT DAY. I AM A DAY TRADER AND USE DAILY CHART FOR THE NEXT DAY. I AM SURE YOUR WILL REPLY TO THIS.
    MANY MANY THANKS FOR SUPERB MENTORING AND YOUR GENEROSITY TO DO IMPARTING SUCH USEFUL EDUCATION. VIJAYKUMAR

    [Reply]


  84. Sam
    8 months ago

    Thank you Markus, it was a great and very easy description to follow, I always learn something new every day, enjoy and treasure the knowledge that you are always willing to share thanks. :-)

    [Reply]


  85. Subramanian,Ram
    8 months ago

    Hi Marcus,

    Your explanation was very good. What about stops ? Where do we keep our stops ?
    Shall be grateful if you could explain.

    [Reply]

 
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