Happy New Year – Here’s what to expect in 2017…

Market Recap for Sunday, January 1st, 2017


2016 was a wild year.

We had a solid December.

But this year there was no “Santa Claus Rally”:  The last week of December produced a 1.1% loss for the S&P, a 0.9% loss for the DOW, and a 1.5% decline for the NASDAQ.

Looking back at 2016, it was another year for the record books.

After a rough start (worst 2-week start for stocks EVER), the major indices bounced between negative territory and being slightly positive for the first 6 months of the year. Then in July, stocks took off to record levels.

But the real boost for stocks came in November after Donald Trump’s surprise Presidential win. Analysts expected a big drop with a Trump victory. But the mood quickly changed with investors liking the idea of lower taxes and the pro-business policies that President elect Trump could bring.

Although the DOW fell short of the 20,000 milestone in 2016, the DOW had an impressive run last year. With record highs, the DOW led the S&P and NASDAQ in 2016 with a 13.4% gain.

Here’s where the major indices ended the year:

  • The S&P finished with a 9.5% gain. Up 195 points, the S&P ended at 2,239.
  • The DOW ended 13.4% higher. Adding 2338 points, the DOW closed at 19,763.
  • The NASDAQ was up 7.5%. With a 376 point gain the NASDAQ finished at 5,383.

Crude Oil (CL) mimicked stocks in most of 2016. But it wasn’t until OPEC’s decision to cut output that CL found strength above the $45 mark. And at $53.67 a barrel CL finished the year strong with an 11.4% gain.

Speaking of strong, a strong dollar seems to be the new norm as we head into 2017. The US Dollar Index (DX) is at levels not seen in 14 years. And with pressure from a strong dollar, metals finished the year back near 2016 lows (Gold at $1151.9 and Silver at $15.965).
So what can we expect in 2017?

According to strategists surveyed by Bloomberg, everyone is predicting that the S&P will be higher next year with the average forecast for the S&P being 2,356. But as active traders we always know that it’s best to trade what you SEE, not what you THINK. So pay attention to the charts, have a solid strategy, and follow your plan!

Tomorrow markets are closed in observance of New Year’s Day. And here are the key reports this week (all times ET):

  • MONDAYMarkets CLOSED.
  • TUESDAYISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00am.
  • WEDNESDAYFOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00pm.
  • THURSDAYADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 8:15am, Unemployment Claims at 8:30am, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 10:00am, and Crude Oil Inventories at 11:00am.
  • FRIDAYJobs Report at 8:30am.

 

 

This Week’s Economic Calendar

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

Have a great trading week!



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