4th of July Fireworks and Record Highs – Here’s what’s moving the markets right now…

Stock Market Update Sunday, July 7th, 2019

As far as holiday trading weeks go, this was one for the record books – literally!!!

At the beginning of the week, the focus was on trade.

President Trump and President Xi of China met over the weekend and the two leaders didn’t make any major announcements, but they essentially agreed to a trade war “truce” so new tariffs won’t be added. Traders seemed pleased with the outcome of the weekend meeting because stocks jumped on Monday.

On Tuesday, stocks were higher again. But with the holiday, trading was quiet (as expected).

Then on Wednesday, the major indices rocketed higher!

Wednesday was a half day, with markets closing early for the Independence Day holiday. But a weaker than expected Non-Farm Jobs report fueled a stock rally.

On Thursday markets were closed for the 4th of July.

Then on Friday stocks opened lower after a better than expected Jobs Report. The major indices teeter-tottered back and forth around the open and eventually ended the day with a loss.

Friday’s loss brought the S&P’s 5-day win streak to an end.

Here’s what traders were focused on:

  • Jobs DataADP Non-Farm Employment numbers (private sector jobs) came in at 102,000. This was below the 140,000 forecast and a big reason for Wednesday’s jump. But on Friday, Non-Farm Employment numbers jumped to 224,000. This was much bigger than the 162,000 forecast. The numbers sent a mixed message to the market since traders believe the Fed will cut rates if they see disappointing jobs data (what fueled Wednesday’s rally). But the Jobs Report on Friday was better than expected, and why the major indices pulled back on Friday. 
  • Record Highs – Both the S&P and DOW made new record highs and closed with new records. The DOW closed just 34 points away from the 27,000 mark, and the S&P came within 2 points of 2,800.The NASDAQ had its best close ever, coming 6 points away from its record high set on April 29th.

Here’s where the major indices ended the week:

  • The S&P finished with a 1.7% gain. Up 49 points, the S&P ended at 2,990.
  • The DOW ended higher by 1.2%. Adding 322 points, the DOW closed at 26,922.
  • The NASDAQ was up 1.9%. With a 156 point gain, the NASDAQ finished at 8,162.

Crude Oil (CL) had a back and forth week. Up Monday, down on Tuesday. Up Wednesday, down on Thursday then up again on Friday. But eventually, Crude Oil ended with a loss. Down 1.7%, CL ended at $57.40 a barrel. 

The CME Group’s FedWatch tool has consistently shown that traders believe there is a 100% chance the Fed will cut rates at the July meeting. But after Friday’s Jobs Report, the probability dropped a few points to 94%.

Gold (GC) dropped after Friday’s better than expected jobs data. Gold found support around the $1400 mark but ended the day with a 1.4% loss.

And the Bitcoin craziness continued last week. Trading as high 12,230 and as low as 9,805, the crypto finished the week with down 10.7%, which is 21.2% below the previous week’s high.

Here is the economic calendar for the week:

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

This Stock Market Update was provided by Rockwell Trading Services LLC.

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